Oscars 2019: Picks and predictions

Brad Keefe

Hey, the Oscars are this Sunday night! It’s Hollywood’s biggest night … just maybe not so much for real movie lovers. The Academy predictably disappoints me, so here are my predictions (and who I’d really like to see take the bald man home).



"Black Panther"

"Bohemian Rhapsody"

"The Favourite"

"Green Book"


"A Star is Born"


Will win: After a Netflix promotional blitz, Alfonso Cuaron’s “Roma” looks ready to make the streaming service’s first Best Pic nominee a winner.

Should win: “Roma” is remarkable and would fully deserve to win, but I’d be just as happy to see the irreverent period comedy “The Favourite” at the podium.

Spoiler alert: “Green Book”


Spike Lee, "BlacKkKlansman"

Pawel Pawlikowski, "Cold War"

Yorgos Lanthimos, "The Favourite"

Alfonso Cuaron, "Roma"

Adam McKay, "Vice"

Will win: Cuaron is one of this generation’s greatest directors, so of course he should be honored for one of his greatest films.

Should win: For bringing such a personal vision to the screen, it’s really hard to back anyone but Cuaron here.

Spoiler alert: Spike Lee


Yalitza Aparicio, "Roma"

Glenn Close, "The Wife"

Olivia Colman, "The Favourite"

Lady Gaga, "A Star is Born"

Melissa McCarthy, "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"

Will win: With her storied career and seven nominations without a win, Close is likely to get a deserved moment in the Oscar spotlight.

Should win: In a film with three Oscar nominated performances, Colman still managed to steal the film.

Spoiler alert: Lady Gaga


Christian Bale, "Vice"

Bradley Cooper, "A Star is Born"

Willem Dafoe, "At Eternity's Gate"

Rami Malek, "Bohemian Rhapsody"

Viggo Mortensen, "Green Book"

Will win: Malek as Freddy Mercury was the kind of role that had awards written all over it, especially given the competition.

Should win: Actors gaining/losing weight for a role is also awards bait, but “Vice” would not have been what it was without Bale’s Dick Cheney.

Spoiler alert: Christian Bale


Amy Adams, "Vice"

Marina De Tavira, "Roma"

Regina King, "If Beale Street Could Talk"

Emma Stone, "The Favourite"

Rachel Weisz, "The Favourite"

Will win: Barry Jenkins’ “Moonlight” follow-up seems underrepresented in the nominations, but King is likely to make it an Oscar winner.

Should win: All great performances here, but my love for “The Favourite” shines again with Weisz edging out Stone.

Spoiler alert: Amy Adams


Mahershala Ali, "Green Book"

Adam Driver, "BlacKkKlansman"

Sam Elliott, "A Star is Born"

Richard E. Grant, "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"

Sam Rockwell, "Vice"

Will win: Speaking of “Moonlight,” Ali seems like a lock to collect another Oscar for “Green Book” after winning pretty much everything this year.

Should win: It’s almost unfair for anyone to be up against Ali, although Driver was fantastic in “BlacKkKlansman.”

Spoiler alert: Richard E. Grant


"Incredibles 2"

"Isle of Dogs"


"Ralph Breaks the Internet"

"Spider-man: Into the Spiderverse"

Will win: "Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse" actually should have gotten nods for Best Picture and a screenplay cat, so duh.

Should win: It really should be “Spider-Man” obviously, although I love “Isle of Dogs.”

Spoiler alert: “Isle of Dogs”


"Free Solo"

"Hale County This Morning, This Evening"

"Minding the Gap"

"Of Fathers and Sons"


Will win: People usually don’t think of documentaries as thrillers, but that’s what will propel the rock-climbing doc “Free Solo” to the top.

Should win: OK, seriously, where is “Won’t You Be My Neighbor?” One of the worst nominations snubs of the year.

Spoiler alert: “RBG”


"Capernaum" (Lebanon)

"Cold War" (Poland)

"Never Look Away" (Germany)

"Roma" (Mexico)

"Shoplifters" (Japan)

Will win: We’ve already mentioned “Roma” for Best Picture. There’s almost no way it doesn’t win this.

Should win: This category actually may boast three of the best overall films. I would love to see “Shoplifters” steal the limelight.

Spoiler alert: “Cold War”


“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"


"Can You Ever Forgive Me?"

"If Beale Street Could Talk"

"A Star is Born"

Will win: The real-life story that inspired "BlacKkKlansman" is wild enough, but this screenwriting team transformed it into an incredibly entertaining package.

Should win: "BlacKkKlansman" again, with bonus points for social commentary.

Spoiler alert: "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"


"The Favourite"

"First Reformed"

"Green Book"



Will win: "The Favourite" is the, um, favorite to take home the great Oscar consolation prize, and it deserves it.

Should win: Paul Schrader’s “First Reformed” was as dark as you’d expect from the writer of “Taxi Driver.” It’s also a crime that Ethan Hawke wasn’t nominated for his lead role.

Spoiler alert: “Green Book”


"Cold War"

"The Favourite"

"Never Look Away"


"A Star is Born"

Will win: Cuaron’s frequent collaborations with god among cinematographers, Emmanuel Lubezki, must have rubbed off. Cuaron shot “Roma” himself and should collect another statue.

Should win: No complaints with “Roma,” although “The Favourite” was also special onscreen.

Spoiler alert: “Cold War”